Monday, June 22, 2009

Oil prices

I just saw a crazy statistic.

Asia and the U.S. have about the same consumption of oil daily. I don't want to quote an exact figure, so check it out for yourself. Asia has about 3 billion people (China and India are over 1 billion a piece) and the U.S. population is about 300 million. That means Asia has the same current consumption as the U.S. and 10 times the population. I wonder what that means for future oil prices? I guess it depends on your view of future growth in Asia. Of course prices will also be affected by U.S. consumption. My guess is that U.S. consumption will stay relatively flat, and could possibly fall in the long run due to the "green revolution" which I think will only become more popular...especially if energy prices rise. In Asia, I think it is inevitable that consumption will increase dramatically. As an example of future growth prospects, for the past three months, car sales in China surpassed that in the U.S. for the first time ever. I would say that is at least one example of an argument for potential increase in energy prices and commodities in general.

Couple that with money supply growth and I think commodity prices go much higher in the long run.

No comments:

Post a Comment